Fundamental Approach to Betting on Totals


Are you becoming weary of repeatedly placing bets on the outcome of the game? Switch things up by placing your wager on the total. Total wagering entails placing a 50/50 chance on whether the sum of all points scored by both teams will surpass or fall short of the total posted by the bookmaker.

This wagering option, alternatively referred to as over/under betting, is extended to virtually every conceivable discipline, including but not limited to football, basketball, baseball, hockey, and soccer. As elucidated in this article, hockey is arguably the most favorable sport for lucrative totals wagering due to its comparatively straightforward handicapping process. Nevertheless, that does not imply that wagering on the totals for the aforementioned sports is without potential for profit.

The cost of wagering totals

We would like to reiterate that handicapping totals bets in hockey is considerably more straightforward than in any other sport. Using this straightforward formula, one can approximate the number of goals that will be tallied during a hockey game.

In baseball, numerous additional factors are significant. It is necessary to consider the starting pitcher, the performance of the batters against pitchers with comparable statistics, the current lineup, and the bullpen. Technically, there is a substantial amount of more useful data available in baseball, which increases the likelihood of producing more accurate predictions. However, it is simpler said than done to correctly interpret all of that information in order to form sound judgments.

One obstacle encountered in football wagering is the limited number of games in the season, which prevents the calculation of an exact figure solely based on points allowed and scored. To accomplish this, the initial modification is to utilize medians rather than averages. The median of the following set of numbers is 7, while the mean is 8.33: 3, 7, 15.

How can this be applied to football totals wagering? When determining the number of points earned and permitted, arrange each in an ascending list. The median, which is located in the middle, can be utilized in conjunction with the league average to calculate the estimated number of points scored during a game.

This model is significantly overly simplistic to generate long-term profits. Additional adjustments will be necessary, irrespective of the sport’s simplicity.

It goes without saying that in the event that handicapping totals were effortless, the market would cease to be profitable. Therefore, the reality that they are difficult may work to your advantage if you have ambitions.

Off-Market Rates and Extras

Based on the information provided, there exists a comparatively uncomplicated method to generate profits through NFL totals wagering. Optimizing your strategy to capitalize on off-market prices and sports wagering incentives concurrently is the objective.

It is important to note, as previously stated in our article on market handicapping, that there are two unique categories of sports wagering websites. Square books are wagering sites that cater to recreational bettors, as opposed to sharp books, which are betting sites that cater to specialists.

Additionally, it is critical to comprehend audience bias. The prevailing sentiment among NFL enthusiasts is to place bets in support of an occurrence rather than against it. Simply put, placing an over wager is considerably more enjoyable than placing an under bet. As a consequence, recreational betting sites frequently increase the total by an additional 0.5 points, thereby increasing the line for over bettors.


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